Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods.An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia

Disability weights for comorbidity and their influence on Health-adjusted Life Expectancy

BACKGROUND: Comorbidity complicates estimations of health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) using disease prevalences and disability weights from Burden of Disease studies. Usually, the exact amount of comorbidity is unknown and no disability weights are defined for comorbidity. METHODS: Using data of the Dutch national burden of disease study, the effects of different methods to adjust for comorbidity on HALE calculations are estimated. The default multiplicative adjustment method to define disability weights for comorbidity is compared to HALE estimates without adjustment for comorbidity and to HALE estimates in which the amount of disability in patients with multiple diseases is solely determined by the disease that leads to most disability (the maximum adjustment method). To estimate the amount of comorbidity, independence between diseases is assumed. RESULTS: Compared to the multiplicative adjustment method, the maximum adjustment method lowers HALE estimates by 1.2 years for males and 1.9 years for females. Compared to no adjustment, a multiplicative adjustment lowers HALE estimates by 1.0 years for males and 1.4 years for females. CONCLUSION: The differences in HALE caused by the different adjustment methods demonstrate that adjusting for comorbidity in HALE calculations is an important topic that needs more attention. More empirical research is needed to develop a more general theory as to how comorbidity influences disability

The response of leptin, interleukin-6 and fat oxidation to feeding in weight-losing patients with pancreatic cancer

At baseline, weight-losing pancreatic cancer patients (n=7) had lower leptin (P<0.05) but higher cortisol, interleukin-6, resting energy expenditure and fat oxidation than healthy subjects (n=6, P<0.05). Over a 4 h feeding period, the areas under the curve for glucose, cortisol and interleukin-6 were greater (P<0.05), but less for leptin in the cancer group (P<0.05). Therefore, it would appear that low leptin concentrations, increased fat oxidation and insulin resistance are associated with increased concentrations of cortisol and interleukin-6 in weight-losing patients with pancreatic cancer

Relating circulating thyroid hormone concentrations to serum interleukins-6 and -10 in association with non-thyroidal illnesses including chronic renal insufficiency

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Because of the possible role of cytokines including interleukins (IL) in systemic non-thyroidal illnesses' (NTI) pathogenesis and consequently the frequently associated alterations in thyroid hormone (TH) concentrations constituting the euthyroid sick syndrome (ESS), we aimed in this research to elucidate the possible relation between IL-6 & IL-10 and any documented ESS in a cohort of patients with NTI.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sixty patients and twenty healthy volunteers were recruited. The patients were subdivided into three subgroups depending on their underlying NTI and included 20 patients with chronic renal insufficiency (CRI), congestive heart failure (CHF), and ICU patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Determination of the circulating serum levels of IL-6 and IL-10, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), as well as total T4 and T3 was carried out.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the whole group of patients, we detected a significantly lower T3 and T4 levels compared to control subjects (0.938 ± 0.477 vs 1.345 ± 0.44 nmol/L, p = 0.001 and 47.9 ± 28.41 vs 108 ± 19.49 nmol/L, p < 0.0001 respectively) while the TSH level was normal (1.08+0.518 μIU/L). Further, IL-6 was substantially higher above controls' levels (105.18 ± 72.01 vs 3.35 ± 1.18 ng/L, p < 0.00001) and correlated negatively with both T3 and T4 (r = -0.620, p < 0.0001 & -0.267, p < 0.001, respectively). Similarly was IL-10 level (74.13 ± 52.99 vs 2.64 ± 0.92 ng/ml, p < 0.00001) that correlated negatively with T3 (r = -0.512, p < 0.0001) but not T4. Interestingly, both interleukins correlated positively (r = 0.770, p = <0.001). Moreover, IL-6 (R²= 0.338, p = 0.001) and not IL-10 was a predictor of low T3 levels with only a borderline significance for T4 (R²= 0.082, p = 0.071).</p> <p>By subgroup analysis, the proportion of patients with subnormal T3, T4, and TSH levels was highest in the MI patients (70%, 70%, and 72%, respectively) who displayed the greatest IL-6 and IL-10 concentrations (192.5 ± 45.1 ng/L & 122.95 ± 46.1 ng/L, respectively) compared with CHF (82.95 ± 28.9 ng/L & 69.05 ± 44.0 ng/L, respectively) and CRI patients (40.05 ± 28.9 ng/L & 30.4 ± 10.6 ng/L, respectively). Surprisingly, CRI patients showed the least disturbance in IL-6 and IL-10 despite the lower levels of T3, T4, and TSH in a higher proportion of them compared to CHF patients (40%, 45%, & 26% vs 35%, 25%, & 18%, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>the high prevalence of ESS we detected in NTI including CRI may be linked to IL-6 and IL-10 alterations. Further, perturbation of IL-6 and not IL-10 might be involved in ESS pathogenesis although it is not the only key player as suggested by our findings in CRI.</p

The influence of systemic inflammation, dietary intake and stage of disease on rate of weight loss in patients with gastro-oesophageal cancer

Although weight loss is often a dominant symptom in patients with upper gastrointestinal malignancy, there is a lack of objective evidence describing changes in nutritional status and potential associations between weight loss, food intake, markers of systemic inflammation and stage of disease in such patients. Two hundred and twenty patients diagnosed with gastric/oesophageal cancer were studied. Patients underwent nutritional assessment consisting of calculation of body mass index, measurement of weight loss, dysphagia scoring and estimation of dietary intake. Serum acute-phase protein concentrations were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In all, 182 (83%) patients had lost weight at diagnosis (median loss, 7% body weight). Weight loss was associated with poor performance status, advanced disease stage, dysphagia, reduced dietary intake and elevated serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations. Multiple regression identified dietary intake (estimate of effect, 38%), serum CRP concentrations (estimate of effect, 34%) and stage of disease (estimate of effect, 28%) as independent variables in determining degree of weight loss. Mechanisms other than reduced dietary intake or mechanical obstruction by the tumour appear to be involved in the nutritional decline in patients with gastro-oesophageal malignancy. Recognition that systemic inflammation plays a role in nutritional depletion may inform the development of appropriate therapeutic strategies to ameliorate weight loss, making patients more tolerant of cancer-modifying treatments such as chemotherapy

Estimating health-adjusted life expectancy conditional on risk factors: results for smoking and obesity

BACKGROUND: Smoking and obesity are risk factors causing a large burden of disease. To help formulate and prioritize among smoking and obesity prevention activities, estimations of health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for cohorts that differ solely in their lifestyle (e.g. smoking vs. non smoking) can provide valuable information. Furthermore, in combination with estimates of life expectancy (LE), it can be tested whether prevention of obesity and smoking results in compression of morbidity. METHODS: Using a dynamic population model that calculates the incidence of chronic disease conditional on epidemiological risk factors, we estimated LE and HALE at age 20 for a cohort of smokers with a normal weight (BMI < 25), a cohort of non-smoking obese people (BMI>30) and a cohort of 'healthy living' people (i.e. non smoking with a BMI < 25). Health state valuations for the different cohorts were calculated using the estimated disease prevalence rates in combination with data from the Dutch Burden of Disease study. Health state valuations are multiplied with life years to estimate HALE. Absolute compression of morbidity is defined as a reduction in unhealthy life expectancy (LE-HALE) and relative compression as a reduction in the proportion of life lived in good health (LE-HALE)/LE. RESULTS: Estimates of HALE are highest for a 'healthy living' cohort (54.8 years for men and 55.4 years for women at age 20). Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' men at age 20 are 7.8 and 4.6 for respectively smoking and obese men. Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' women at age 20 are 6.0 and 4.5 for respectively smoking and obese women. Unhealthy life expectancy is about equal for all cohorts, meaning that successful prevention would not result in absolute compression of morbidity. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that although estimates of LE and HALE are sensitive to changes in disease epidemiology, differences in LE and HALE between the different cohorts are fairly robust. In most cases, elimination of smoking or obesity does not result in absolute compression of morbidity but slightly increases the part of life lived in good health. CONCLUSION: Differences in HALE between smoking, obese and 'healthy living' cohorts are substantial and similar to differences in LE. However, our results do not indicate that substantial compression of morbidity is to be expected as a result of successful smoking or obesity prevention

Measuring the Burden of Neglected Tropical Diseases: The Global Burden of Disease Framework

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries, and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented, and of uncertain reliability and comparability. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has provided a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify and compare the health of populations using a summary measure of both mortality and disability, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY)

Glucose and Fatty Acid Metabolism in a 3 Tissue In-Vitro Model Challenged with Normo- and Hyperglycaemia

Nutrient balance in the human body is maintained through systemic signaling between different cells and tissues. Breaking down this circuitry to its most basic elements and reconstructing the metabolic network in-vitro provides a systematic method to gain a better understanding of how cross-talk between the organs contributes to the whole body metabolic profile and of the specific role of each different cell type. To this end, a 3-way connected culture of hepatocytes, adipose tissue and endothelial cells representing a simplified model of energetic substrate metabolism in the visceral region was developed. The 3-way culture was shown to maintain glucose and fatty acid homeostasis in-vitro. Subsequently it was challenged with insulin and high glucose concentrations to simulate hyperglycaemia. The aim was to study the capacity of the 3-way culture to maintain or restore normal circulating glucose concentrations in response to insulin and to investigate the effects these conditions on other metabolites involved in glucose and lipid metabolism. The results show that the system’s metabolic profile changes dramatically in the presence of high concentrations of glucose, and that these changes are modulated by the presence of insulin. Furthermore, we observed an increase in E-selectin levels in hyperglycaemic conditions and increased IL-6 concentrations in insulin-free-hyperglycaemic conditions, indicating, respectively, endothelial injury and proinflammatory stress in the challenged 3-way system

Central Exercise Action Increases the AMPK and mTOR Response to Leptin

AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) and mammalian Target of Rapamycin (mTOR) are key regulators of cellular energy balance and of the effects of leptin on food intake. Acute exercise is associated with increased sensitivity to the effects of leptin on food intake in an IL-6-dependent manner. To determine whether exercise ameliorates the AMPK and mTOR response to leptin in the hypothalamus in an IL-6-dependent manner, rats performed two 3-h exercise bouts, separated by one 45-min rest period. Intracerebroventricular IL-6 infusion reduced food intake and pretreatment with AMPK activators and mTOR inhibitor prevented IL-6-induced anorexia. Activators of AMPK and fasting increased food intake in control rats to a greater extent than that observed in exercised ones, whereas inhibitor of AMPK had the opposite effect. Furthermore, the reduction of AMPK and ACC phosphorylation and increase in phosphorylation of proteins involved in mTOR signal transduction, observed in the hypothalamus after leptin infusion, were more pronounced in both lean and diet-induced obesity rats after acute exercise. Treatment with leptin reduced food intake in exercised rats that were pretreated with vehicle, although no increase in responsiveness to leptin-induced anorexia after pretreatment with anti-IL6 antibody, AICAR or Rapamycin was detected. Thus, the effects of leptin on the AMPK/mTOR pathway, potentiated by acute exercise, may contribute to appetite suppressive actions in the hypothalamus